Agenda
| Time | Indicator/Event | Comment |
| 08:30 | PPI revisions | Seasonal factor revisions |
| 08:30 | Empire State mfg | Solidly positive |
| 09:00 | Tsy intl cap flows | December data |
| 09:45 | Freddie Mac bill auction | $3 billion in 3- and 6-month bills |
| 11:00 | 4-week bill announcement | Another increase expected |
| 11:30 | 3- and 6-month bill auction | $1 billion increase in each maturity, $53 billion offering |
| 12:00 | Hoenig (FOMC voter) | At budget policy forum in D.C. |
| 12:30 | Lockhart (FOMC non-voter) | On early education |
| 12:45 | Kocherlakota (FOMC non-voter) | At the Minnesota Bankers Association |
| 13:00 | NAHB index | Stuck at very low level |
| 17:00 | ABC consumer comfort index | Near low end of its range |
Intraday Updates
[8:30 Releases] The details of the Empire State factory survey didn’t match the strength of the headline index for February.
[1:00 Releases] The NAHB's housing index surprised us by posting its first gain in five months. more »
Economic Indicators
The monthly inflation indexes (PPI and CPI) are the highest-profile items on this week’s calendar. That’s not good news for the market, as higher energy prices are likely to push the headline indices above trend in both the producer price and consumer price reports this month. Other major items on the calendar include housing starts and industrial production on Wednesday. Today’s calendar is limited to the Empire State factory survey at 8:30 and the NAHB housing index at 1:00. more »
Federal Reserve Operations & the Overnight Market
Fed Open Market Operations Reserve balances should remain high this week, but the effect on the funds rate may be offset by upward pressure on repos from the settlement of the Treasury refunding at the start of the week. more »
Fed Funds Monitor Fed funds data tables more »
Treasury Finance
This week's auction schedule is limited to bills. The Treasury has a major coupon announcement scheduled for Thursday (including the first of the new 30-year TIPS offerings), but those auctions will all take place next week. The major questions about this week's schedule concern the cash management bills. At some point in the coming weeks, the Treasury will probably begin to issue seasonal April-dated CM bills as well as revive its SFP auctions. We could see announcements on one or both of these fronts this week. more »
The Money Market Observer
Monday, Feb 15 Economic developments ultimately will determine how the Fed’s exit strategy will play out, but some of the Fed’s technical preferences began to take shape in Chairman Bernanke’s testimony last week. He laid out a baseline scenario in which the Fed would introduce the remainder of is new tools on a trial basis, and then ramp up the scale of its draining operations when the time for a rate hike drew near. The goal would be to push the funds rate back to the ceiling of the Fed’s target range before formally tightening. If the Fed were unable to drain enough reserves before the first rate hike, the Fed might adopt the interest rate paid on reserves as its policy reference rate on a temporary basis, while simultaneously specifying a timetable for getting the level of excess reserves back to lower levels. Bernanke also discussed the option of Treasury redemptions as a draining tool, and warned that the discount rate was likely to rise “before long”. more »
Daily Press Summary (pdf)
Inside Debt Daily for Tuesday, Feb 16 The Inside Debt Daily provides relevant market news and market segment commentary from Thomson Reuters and data from ICAP and Wrightson ICAP in a take-home, easy-to-read format highlighting key developments which could impact the capital markets the ensuing trading day. Download a PDF file of the most recent report now. go »
Daily Press and Pricing Archive go »
