Agenda
| Time | Indicator/Event | Comment |
| 07:00 | MBA mortgage prch. index | Purchase index still struggling |
| 08:15 | ADP national employment report | Still falling (slightly) |
| 09:00 | Tsy quarterly refunding announcement | Small increases in the 10s and 30s possible but not certain |
| 09:45 | Fannie Mae bill auction | $3 billion in 3- and 6-month bills |
| 10:00 | ISM non-mfg report | No match for the January factory survey |
| 10:00 | Treasury press conference webcast | Coupon offering sizes are at or near their peaks for the cycle |
| 11:30 | Treasury SFP-CMB auction | $5 billion of 21-day bills |
| 13:00 | Warsh (FOMC voter) | At New York Association for Business Economics |
Intraday Updates
[8:15 Data] The ADP employment report was close to expectations, and does not alter our forecast of a small increase in nonfarm payrolls on Friday.
[9:00 Announcement] The Treasury confirmed that nominal coupon issuance has reached its peak for this cycle. The same cannot be said for TIPS -- the Treasury this morning floated the possiblity of adding an extra set of 10-year TIPS reopenings to its calendar in the second half of the year.
[10:00 Data] The ISM non-manufacturing survey remained sluggish. The employment index was downbeat, but does not alter our forecast for Friday's payroll data. more »
Economic Indicators
Today’s ISM non-manufacturing survey has the potential to be the most important indicator of the week. Friday’s employment report clearly has more scope to move the market in the short run, but the ISM non-manufacturing survey could play a bigger role in our forecast for economic activity over the next couple of months. more »
Federal Reserve Operations & the Overnight Market
Fed Open Market Operations We continue to expect reserves to begin rising today, which should lead to some softening in the funds rate. more »
Fed Funds Monitor Fed funds data tables more »
Treasury Finance
The Treasury will release its quarterly borrowing statement this morning at 9:00. We expect the supporting documents released along with the refunding announcement to make the case that nominal Treasury coupon auction sizes are either at or close to their peaks for the cycle. The other major focus of attention will be the outlook for SFP bill issuance. With the House not due to vote on the debt ceiling increase before tomorrow, it is unclear how many details the Treasury will be able to provide this morning. more »
The Money Market Observer
Monday, Feb 1 The Treasury will hold its quarterly financing press conference on Wednesday this week. We think Treasury note and bond offering sizes are close to a turning point. There is a chance that the Treasury will announcement one last round of increases in its 10- and 30-year issues this month, but the rest of its nominal offerings have probably already reached their peaks. Congress may finally approve a full-sized increase in the debt ceiling this week, which would clear the way for the resumption of SFP bill sales this month. more »
Daily Press Summary (pdf)
Inside Debt Daily for Wednesday, Feb 3 The Inside Debt Daily provides relevant market news and market segment commentary from Thomson Reuters and data from ICAP and Wrightson ICAP in a take-home, easy-to-read format highlighting key developments which could impact the capital markets the ensuing trading day. Download a PDF file of the most recent report now. go »
Daily Press and Pricing Archive go »
