Agenda
| Time | Indicator/Event | Comment |
| 08:30 | Jobless claims | Seasonal distortion drives claims down |
| 08:30 | Continuing claims | Modest uptick in late June |
| 09:00 | Duke (FOMC voter) | At FDIC conference in Chicago |
| 10:00 | Wholesale inventories | Still plummeting despite rising industrial prices |
| 10:15 | Fed Treasury coupon purchase | July 2010 to April 2011 |
| 11:00 | 3- and 6-month bill announcement | $2 billion increase expected |
| 13:00 | 30-yr bond (r) auction | Steady at $11 billion |
| 13:30 | Kohn (FOMC voter) | Testify at House on Fed independence |
| 14:30 | Stern (FOMC non-voter) | On the U.S. financial crisis |
| Chain store sales | Down sharply on a year-over-year basis | |
| Fannie Mae note pricing | New 3-year note |
Intraday Updates
We would give a little more weight to the weak continuing claims series than to the strong initial jobless claims number this morning, but both were affected by statistical quirks.
Chain store sales were weaker than we expected in June. Nominal retail sales will be positive next week, but only because of higher gasoline prices. Real consumer spending appears to have declined again in June. more »
Economic Indicators
We expect to see a significant decline in initial jobless claims this morning. Or, more accurately, a large but economically insignificant decline. Statistical distortions are likely to depress initial claims in each of the next two weeks. Today’s calendar also includes wholesale inventories for May and chain store sales for June. more »
Federal Reserve Operations & the Overnight Market
Fed Open Market Operations Yesterday's bi-weekly announcement of the Treasury coupon purchase schedule was consistent with recent trends. Also, the Fed will conduct the final operation from the previous announcement this morning, a purchase in the 1- to 2-year sector. more »
Fed Funds Monitor Fed funds data tables more »
Treasury Finance
The Treasury will complete its July mini-refunding with the sale of $11 billion of reopened 30-year bonds this afternoon. It will also announce the terms of next week’s 3- and 6-month bills at 11:00 this morning. more »
The Money Market Observer
Monday, Jul 6 The auto sector is likely to be the source of some significant statistical distortions in the early part of the third quarter. The first data quirks are likely to show up in the weekly jobless claims data. Initial claims may fall by 20% over the next couple of weeks, starting with a sizable drop in this Thursday’s report.
This week’s newsletter also includes some comments on the role of the boards of directors of the regional Federal Reserve banks, and the unnecessary conflicts of interest generated by the Fed’s traditional governance structure. more »
Daily Press Summary (pdf)
Inside Debt Daily for Thursday, Jul 9 The Inside Debt Daily provides relevant market news and market segment commentary from Thomson Reuters and data from ICAP and Wrightson ICAP in a take-home, easy-to-read format highlighting key developments which could impact the capital markets the ensuing trading day. Download a PDF file of the most recent report now. go »
Daily Press and Pricing Archive go »
