Agenda
| Time | Indicator/Event | Comment |
| 08:30 | Nonfarm payrolls | Not quite as favorable as in May |
| 08:30 | Jobless claims | Close to the recent average |
| 08:30 | Continuing claims | Close to the recent average |
| 10:00 | Factory orders | Higher commodity prices combine with increase in durables to push total up |
| 11:00 | 3- and 6-month bill announcement | Further increase likely this week |
| 11:00 | Treasury note announcements | Increase likely in the 3-year, possible in the 10-year TIPS |
Intraday Updates
The payroll data confirmed that labor market trends have improved, but not by as much as indicated by the previous month's report. In the household survey, a shift in the composition of the data led to a smaller increase in the unemployment rate than we anticipated. more »
Economic Indicators
After showing an abrupt improvement in May, payrolls are likely to backtrack at least somewhat in June. We continue to look for a decline of 450K this morning, versus an originally reported drop of 345K last month. The unemployment rate is likely to inch up modestly to 9.6%.
Jobless claims are due out at the same time as payrolls this morning. We look for only modest changes in both initial and continuing claims. more »
Federal Reserve Operations & the Overnight Market
Fed Open Market Operations The changes to Regulation D announced by the Fed in May will take effect today. Our guess is that the combined impact of the changes will tend to push the funds rate down in the early part of July. more »
Fed Funds Monitor Fed funds data tables more »
Treasury Finance
The Treasury has a major financing announcement due at 11:00 this morning. In addition to the regular 3- and 6-month bills, the Treasury will announce a quarterly 10-year TIPS auction along with its normal monthly package of 3-, 10- and 30-year nominal securities. As discussed in this week’s issue of our newsletter, we think the Treasury may take this opportunity to start boosting the size of its TIPS offerings. more »
The Money Market Observer
Monday, Jun 29 This week's newsletter touches briefly on a handful of different topics: this Thursday's employment report, the apparent slowdown in the pace of Fed purchases of Treasuries, and the reasons why the Treasury might start to increase its TIPS offerings for the first time in five years this week. more »
Daily Press Summary (pdf)
Inside Debt Daily for Thursday, Jul 2 The Inside Debt Daily provides relevant market news and market segment commentary from Thomson Reuters and data from ICAP and Wrightson ICAP in a take-home, easy-to-read format highlighting key developments which could impact the capital markets the ensuing trading day. Download a PDF file of the most recent report now. go »
Daily Press and Pricing Archive go »
