Agenda
| Time | Indicator/Event | Comment |
| 08:30 | Chicago Fed NAI | Deep in recession territory |
| 10:00 | TAF results | Results of yesterday's 28-day auction |
| 13:00 | 1-month and year-bill auction | $27 billion and $21 billion respectively |
| 15:00 | TSLF announcement | $37.5 billion Schedule 2 operation expected |
| 17:00 | ABC consumer comfort index | New lows? |
| 19:45 | Stern (FOMC voter) | In Michigan |
| Weekly chain store surveys | Weaker in mid-October? |
Intraday Updates
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index crashed, falling to a new 26-year low.
Demand for the Fed's 1-month TAF auction was surprisingly weak. more »
Economic Indicators
Unlike yesterday's leading indicator's index from the Conference Board (which posted a rare increase in September), we expect this morning's Chicago Fed National Activity Index to remain firmly entrenched at recessionary levels. more »
Federal Reserve Operations & the Overnight Market
Fed Open Market Operations We expect the Desk to roll over both the overnight $25 billion reverse RP and the $20 billion 7-day MBS RP maturing this morning.
Also, comments on the results of yesterday's TAF auction and the outlook for foreign central bank dollar liquidity operations. more »
Fed Funds Monitor Our guess is that (relatively) tighter reserve availability will again keep funds from crashing toward the end of today's session. more »
Treasury Finance
The Treasury will sell $27 billion of 4-week bills and $21 billion of year-bills today. The back-up in yields in the bill sector in recent days is likely to accelerate the move to larger note and bond sizes. The major decisions about the Treasury’s borrowing strategy are likely to wait until the November refunding announcement in two weeks, but we now expect larger increases in the 2- and 5-year note announcement on Thursday as a down-payment on this year’s staggering borrowing requirement. more »
The Money Market Observer
Monday, Oct 20 Life isn’t getting any easier for the Treasury. After a round-the-clock effort to persuade Congress to approve the TARP in the first, the Treasury now finds it needs to persuade banks to take advantage of the capital injection option. The terms still seem attractive to us; there is just that little matter of convincing healthy banks to sign up to participate in a “bailout” program.
This week’s newsletter also looks at the convergence of the NYFR and LIBOR fixings last week, and the prospects for further narrowing in interbank spreads in light of the growing network of official backstops. The FDIC is still trying to figure out what the U.S. guarantee program should look like. It is a delicate task. Poorly-designed, patchwork guarantee programs can do more harm than good. more »
Daily Press Summary (pdf)
ICAP's i-Recap Report for Tuesday, Oct 21 The i-Recap report provides relevant market news from Dow Jones Newswires and data from ICAP and Wrightson ICAP in a take-home, easy-to-read format highlighting key developments which could impact the capital markets the ensuing trading day. Download a PDF file of the most recent report now. go »
i-Recap Report Archive go »
