Agenda
| Time | Indicator/Event | Comment |
| 08:30 | CPI | Neutral for the Fed and the markets |
| 08:30 | Jobless claims | Storm effects fading |
| 08:30 | Continuing claims | Cyclical damage mounting |
| 09:00 | MAPI manufacturing survey | R&D plans sliding? |
| 09:00 | Tsy intl cap flows | August data |
| 09:15 | Industrial production | Massive decline in September |
| 09:30 | Bullard (FOMC non-voter) | On U.S. growth potential |
| 10:00 | Phila. Fed mfg survey | Back in negative territory |
| 11:00 | 3- and 6-month and year- bill announcement | No change expected, but increases possible |
| 11:30 | Treasury CM bill auction | $35 billion in 247-day bills |
| 12:00 | Stern (FOMC voter) | In Houghton, Michigan |
| 13:00 | Treasury CM bill auction | $35 billion in 191-day bills |
| 13:00 | NAHB index | Back to (or below) its lows |
| 14:00 | TSLF auction | $25 billion Schedule 1 collateral |
| 20:00 | Rosengren (FOMC non-voter) | On foreclosures |
Intraday Updates
The September CPI was unexpectedly mild, while the jobless claims figures were just about as dreary as anticipated.
Industrial production was even weaker than our very pessimistic forecast.
The Philadelphia Fed's factory index also deteriorated even more than we expected.
The NAHB housing index fell even farther than we expected in October. more »
Economic Indicators
The most important item on today’s economic calendar is the September CPI at 8:30, which is likely to be neutral for the market. After that, the outlook for the data is bleak. Initial jobless claims may improve again due to fading storm effects, but continuing claims are likely to rise to another new cyclical high. We think industrial production could fall by as much as 2%. The headline index in the Philadelphia Fed’s regional factory survey is likely to plummet after edging above zero last month. The NAHB housing index at 1:00 could fall to or below its previous cyclical low. more »
Federal Reserve Operations & the Overnight Market
Fed Open Market Operations We expect the Desk to roll over the maturing round of reverse RPs at roughly the same level, but that probably won't be nearly enough to absorb the increase in reserves in the system today. Also, comments on yesterday's 7-day unlimited fixed-rate European tenders and the prospects for today's TSLF auction. more »
Fed Funds Monitor The reserve surplus thus far in the maintenance period appears to be larger than we initially expected, and we have lowered our effective rate forecasts for both today and tomorrow as a result. more »
Treasury Finance
The Treasury will sell $70 billion of cash management bills today, and will announce the terms of next week's 13-, 26- and 52-week bills. more »
The Money Market Observer
Monday, Oct 13 Monday morning’s announcement of unlimited dollar funding operations at pre-determined interest rates by major foreign central banks should eliminate any concern about the ability of eligible participants to cover their dollar funding needs. Some important details are still to be determined, including where the administered rates on these operations will be set, and how the Fed’s own TAF operations will fit into the picture. This week’s newsletter takes a look at the uncertain implications of the latest liquidity initiatives for LIBOR, and also at the need for additional sterilization tools for the Federal Reserve. more »
Daily Press Summary (pdf)
ICAP's i-Recap Report for Thursday, Oct 16 The i-Recap report provides relevant market news from Dow Jones Newswires and data from ICAP and Wrightson ICAP in a take-home, easy-to-read format highlighting key developments which could impact the capital markets the ensuing trading day. Download a PDF file of the most recent report now. go »
i-Recap Report Archive go »
