Agenda
| Time | Indicator/Event | Comment |
| 07:00 | MBA mortgage prch. index | Back down in early October |
| 08:05 | Rosengren (FOMC non-voter) | On the economic outlook |
| 08:30 | Retail sales | Total and core sales down in September |
| 08:30 | PPI | Second consecutive decline in headline index |
| 08:30 | Empire State mfg | Softening |
| 09:45 | Fannie Mae bill auction | $3 billion 2-part auction |
| 10:00 | Business inventories | Moderate increase |
| 11:30 | Treasury SFP-CM bill auction | $45 billion in 63-day bills |
| 12:15 | Bernanke | At Economic Club of New York |
| 13:00 | 4-week bill auction | A $2 billion increase to $27 billion |
| 14:00 | Beige book | Credit crunch anecdotes? |
| 14:00 | TSLF auction | $37.5 billion Schedule 2 collateral |
| 15:00 | TSLF announcement | Tomorrow's Schedule 1 operation |
| 19:00 | Kohn (FOMC voter) | On the economic outlook |
Intraday Updates
Retail sales were even weaker than industry data had suggested in September. The PPI was broadly in line with expectations, as the core finished goods index posted a moderately large gain while trends in most other components softened. The Empire State factory index plunged in October, which brought into line with last month's decline in the ISM composite. more »
Economic Indicators
The economic calendar in the days ahead is likely to be extremely weak. In today’s line-up, we expect declines in the overall PPI and in total and core retail sales for September. We also think the Empire State factory survey is likely to decline for October, and we expect the beige book this afternoon to capture some softening of business sentiment in the wake of the financial market turmoil that erupted in September. more »
Fed Policy
Now that the main features of the financial rescue package have been announced, the big question is whether banks will take advantage of the new support programs. From our perspective, the Treasury’s capital-purchase plan seems (as though it should be attractive to banks. However, the terms of the FDIC’s new senior bank debt insurance program are too vague to be evaluated at this point. The benefits of a 75-basis-point insurance premium will depend in part on the cost of funding through the new fixed-rate Euro-TAF operations, and on the rates that will be set on future domestic TAF operations. more »
Federal Reserve Operations & the Overnight Market
Fed Open Market Operations Our best guess is that the Fed will roll over yesterday's overnight reverse RP this morning. more »
Fed Funds Monitor The funds outlook remains very uncertain, but we think the risks lean to the low side of our 1.00% effective rate forecast for today. more »
Treasury Finance
The Treasury is due to sell $45 billion of 63-day SFP bills at 11:30 and $27 billion of regular 28-day bills at 1:00. more »
The Money Market Observer
Monday, Oct 13 Monday morning’s announcement of unlimited dollar funding operations at pre-determined interest rates by major foreign central banks should eliminate any concern about the ability of eligible participants to cover their dollar funding needs. Some important details are still to be determined, including where the administered rates on these operations will be set, and how the Fed’s own TAF operations will fit into the picture. This week’s newsletter takes a look at the uncertain implications of the latest liquidity initiatives for LIBOR, and also at the need for additional sterilization tools for the Federal Reserve. more »
Daily Press Summary (pdf)
ICAP's i-Recap Report for Wednesday, Oct 15 The i-Recap report provides relevant market news from Dow Jones Newswires and data from ICAP and Wrightson ICAP in a take-home, easy-to-read format highlighting key developments which could impact the capital markets the ensuing trading day. Download a PDF file of the most recent report now. go »
i-Recap Report Archive go »
