Agenda
| Time | Indicator/Event | Comment |
| 08:30 | International trade | Nominal deficit down on oil prices |
| 08:30 | Import prices | Steep decline due to oil prices |
| Recommended early close |
Intraday Updates
The composition of the international trade report was a surprise, as the headline deficit narrowed less than we projected but the inflation-adjusted balance improved more expected. Import prices fell across the board, as non-fuel prices were far weaker than anticipated. more »
Economic Indicators
Falling oil prices should play a major role in both of this morning’s 8:30 indicators. We expect the August trade deficit to narrow thanks to lower energy prices, and we expect the September import price index to plunge for the same reason. more »
Federal Reserve Operations & the Overnight Market
Fed Open Market Operations The Desk appears to have plenty of room to arrange a round of reverse RPs this morning, but we suspect that it may choose not to do so. more »
Fed Funds Monitor Funds may be firm early in the session, but we think late-day trading at or below the Fed's new "floor" rate will pull today's effective rate below target. more »
Fed Data Discount window borrowing rose again, and excess reserves remained above $100 billion on average in the latest week. Also, the Fed's foreign official custody data showed a shift away from GSE debt, and the weekly dealer position data were reflected quarter-end effects in several areas. more »
The Money Market Observer
Monday, Oct 6 The Fed has finally been granted the ability to pay interest on reserves. If the Fed is ready to put this long-sought authority to work quickly, we would expect it to combine the announcement of the new reserves framework this week with a half-put cut in its official funds rate target. With economic and financial conditions pointing to a rate cut by the October 29 FOMC meeting anyway, there is little point in introducing new tools to enforce the old target for the next three weeks.
This week’s newsletter takes yet another look at some of the implementation issues raised by interest payments on reserves, and ends with a reminder that remunerated reserve balances may not be the only tool the Fed brings to bear on the credit crisis as it tries to restore stability to the financial markets. more »Daily Press Summary (pdf)
ICAP's i-Recap Report for Friday, Oct 10 The i-Recap report provides relevant market news from Dow Jones Newswires and data from ICAP and Wrightson ICAP in a take-home, easy-to-read format highlighting key developments which could impact the capital markets the ensuing trading day. Download a PDF file of the most recent report now. go »
i-Recap Report Archive go »
