Agenda
| Time | Indicator/Event | Comment |
| 08:30 | Jobless claims | Retreating from post-Ike highs |
| 08:30 | Continuing claims | New highs |
| 10:00 | Wholesale inventories | Only a small increase in August |
| 11:00 | 3- and 6-month bill announcement | No change expected, steady at $53 billion |
| 11:30 | Treasury snap reopenings (2/15 and 2/18) | $10 billion reopenings in each maturity |
| 13:00 | Treasury SFP-CM bill auction | $30 billion in 97-day bills |
| 13:30 | Stern (FOMC voter) | On financial shock |
| 14:00 | TSLF auction | $37.5 billion of Schedule 2 collateral |
| 15:00 | Treasury investor class auction data | September data |
| 16:00 | Rosengren (FOMC non-voter) | At the University of Wisconsin |
| Chain store sales | Up just 1% year-over-year | |
| Freddie Mac note pricing | $4 billion in new 2-year notes |
Intraday Updates
Initial jobless claims retreated only modestly in the week of October 4. more »
Economic Indicators
Initial and continuing claims are likely to move in opposite directions this morning, with new filings retreating from the storm-inflated levels of recent weeks and continuing claims hitting a new high. Chain store sales for September are also due out this morning, and should reinforce expectations of weak consumption spending data for the month. more »
Federal Reserve Operations & the Overnight Market
Fed Open Market Operations The reserve surplus appears likely to rise substantially today, so we suspect that the Desk may move back to the drain side of the market this morning. more »
Fed Funds Monitor We think early tightness will keep the effective rate from falling below the Fed's new 1.50% target on the first day of the new maintenance period.
Today's preview also includes a preliminary discussion of our guesses on how the new reserve interest-paying system will affect the day-to-day dynamics of the funds market. more »
Treasury Finance
Round II of the Treasury’s reopening campaign will take place at 11:30 this morning, when the Treasury will sell $10 billion each of the old 10-year notes maturing on February 2015 and February 2018. The Treasury will also sell $30 billion of 97-day bills for the Supplementary Financing Program at 1:00, and will announce (at a minimum) the terms of next week’s 3- and 6-month bills at 11:00. more »
The Money Market Observer
Monday, Oct 6 The Fed has finally been granted the ability to pay interest on reserves. If the Fed is ready to put this long-sought authority to work quickly, we would expect it to combine the announcement of the new reserves framework this week with a half-put cut in its official funds rate target. With economic and financial conditions pointing to a rate cut by the October 29 FOMC meeting anyway, there is little point in introducing new tools to enforce the old target for the next three weeks.
This week’s newsletter takes yet another look at some of the implementation issues raised by interest payments on reserves, and ends with a reminder that remunerated reserve balances may not be the only tool the Fed brings to bear on the credit crisis as it tries to restore stability to the financial markets. more »Daily Press Summary (pdf)
ICAP's i-Recap Report for Thursday, Oct 9 The i-Recap report provides relevant market news from Dow Jones Newswires and data from ICAP and Wrightson ICAP in a take-home, easy-to-read format highlighting key developments which could impact the capital markets the ensuing trading day. Download a PDF file of the most recent report now. go »
i-Recap Report Archive go »
