Agenda
| Time | Indicator/Event | Comment |
| 08:30 | Personal consumption | Real spending down in June |
| 09:45 | Freddie Mac bill auction | $2 billion in 3- and 6-month bills |
| 10:00 | Factory orders | Moderate increase expected |
| 11:00 | 4-week bill announcement | Small increase expected |
| 13:00 | 3- and 6-month bill auction | $49 billion offering |
The Money Market Observer
Monday, Aug 4 Despite the recent rash of inflation warnings by regional Fed presidents, we expect the tone of the FOMC's policy statement to change very little this week. The Fed is unlikely to suggest that it is any closer to a rate hike today than it was in June.
Also, this week's newsletter takes a look at the new 84-day TAF auctions that will start next Monday, and the new options on TSLF loans that the Fed plans to introduce. more »
Intraday Updates
The biggest surprise in this morning's revised PCE and PCE price data was the year-over-year growth in the headline price index, which jumped to 4.1%.
Nondurable inventories in this morning's factory orders report came in well above expectations, which should boost Q2 GDP in the next regular revision at the end of this month. more »
Economic Indicators
There are not a lot of major indicators on the calendar this week, and some of the releases that did make it onto the list will be affected by technical distortions. Today’s monthly PCE and PCE prices will be one of the more interesting items on the calendar: we expect to see a decline in real spending for June, along with an uptick in the year-over-year growth rate of the monthly core PCE price index to 2.3%. Other items later in the week include the ISM non-manufacturing survey tomorrow and pending home sales on Thursday. more »
Federal Reserve Operations & the Overnight Market
Fed Open Market Operations We expect the Desk to replace only about $10 billion to $11 billion of the $12.25 billion running off this morning. more »
Fed Funds Monitor We look for an effective rate in the vicinity of target today. more »
Treasury Finance
This week’s 4-week bill should be at least as large as last week’s $28 billion offering, and probably larger. more »
Daily Press Summary (pdf)
ICAP's i-Recap Report for Monday, Aug 4 The i-Recap report provides relevant market news from Dow Jones Newswires and data from ICAP and Wrightson ICAP in a take-home, easy-to-read format highlighting key developments which could impact the capital markets the ensuing trading day. Download a PDF file of the most recent report now. go »
i-Recap Report Archive go »
