Agenda
| Time | Indicator/Event | Comment |
| 08:30 | Nonfarm payrolls | Another decline in payrolls and another increase in unemployment |
| 10:00 | ISM report | Still fluctuating around breakeven |
| 10:00 | Construction spending | Still falling at the end of the second quarter |
| Dom & imp. auto sales | Still falling at the start of the third quarter |
Intraday Updates
Payrolls did a little better (relatively speaking) than we expected, and the unemployment rate did a little worse. The overall picture is of a stagnant labor market.
The ISM factory index managed to hold steady at its breakeven level in July. Construction spending fell as expected in June, and is poised to be more of a drag on the GDP calculations in the third quarter than it was in the second.
Chrysler's figures have dragged auto sales even further below expectations. Our final projected SAAR is 4.4 million units for cars and 4.6 million units for trucks. more »
Economic Indicators
The market faces another full menu of data today. The employment report leads off at 8:30, followed by the ISM factory survey and construction spending at 10:00. Auto sales are due out over the course of the afternoon, and are likely to be notably weak. more »
Federal Reserve Operations & the Overnight Market
Fed Open Market Operations We look for just a moderate weekend RP from the Desk this morning. more »
Fed Funds Monitor We expect funds to continue to have an upward bias through today's first-of-the-month session. more »
Fed Data The volume of term loans in the Fed’s regular primary credit program continued to creep up in the latest week. Foreign official purchases of U.S. government securities tilted heavily toward Treasuries and away from GSEs again this week. Dealer demand for the latest TSLF auction was tepid. more »
The Money Market Observer
Monday, Jul 28 The newswires will be full of forbidding fiscal headlines on Monday. OMB will release its Mid-Session Review of the budget, which is almost certain to predict record deficits for this year and next. The Treasury will publish its projections quarterly borrowing needs in the afternoon, which are likely to be roughly twice as large as the average of recent years. As discussed last week, we think the deteriorating fiscal outlook is likely to prompt the Treasury to expand its issuance in the 10-year sector in the coming months. more »
Daily Press Summary (pdf)
ICAP's i-Recap Report for Friday, Aug 1 The i-Recap report provides relevant market news from Dow Jones Newswires and data from ICAP and Wrightson ICAP in a take-home, easy-to-read format highlighting key developments which could impact the capital markets the ensuing trading day. Download a PDF file of the most recent report now. go »
i-Recap Report Archive go »
