Agenda
| Time | Indicator/Event | Comment |
| 09:45 | Freddie Mac bill auction | $2 billion of 3- and 6-month bills |
| 10:00 | TAF auction | $75 billion rollover |
| 11:00 | 4-week bill announcement | Sharp (but temporary) reduction likely |
| 12:30 | Mishkin (FOMC voter) | On communication |
| 13:00 | 3- and 6-month bill auction | Unchanged at $47 billion |
| 14:30 | Warsh (FOMC voter) | On covered bonds |
| 15:00 | Tsy financing estimates | $165 billion in Q3 |
| OMB Mid-Session Review | Updated projections likely to show deficits above $400 billion for FY08 and FY09 |
The Money Market Observer
Monday, Jul 28 The newswires will be full of forbidding fiscal headlines on Monday. OMB will release its Mid-Session Review of the budget, which is almost certain to predict record deficits for this year and next. The Treasury will publish its projections quarterly borrowing needs in the afternoon, which are likely to be roughly twice as large as the average of recent years. As discussed last week, we think the deteriorating fiscal outlook is likely to prompt the Treasury to expand its issuance in the 10-year sector in the coming months. more »
Intraday Updates
While OMB's FY08 deficit projection was smaller than we anticipated, the Treasury's borrowing projection was slightly larger than our forecast for the July-September period. more »
Economic Indicators
This week’s economic calendar starts out slowly but finishes with a bang. Thursday’s line-up includes the employment cost index and advance estimate of GDP for the second quarter along with the annual benchmark revisions to the national income accounts. Friday features the employment report, the ISM factory index and auto sales for July. GDP is widely expected to be solid, but we look for softer data in the other releases. We expect the ECI to be moderate, payrolls to fall, the ISM factory index to be sluggish, and auto sales to hit a new 15-year low. more »
Federal Reserve Operations & the Overnight Market
Fed Open Market Operations We look for an overnight RP of $12 billion or more, but the Desk may choose to extend the term of this morning's RP up to 4 days. more »
Fed Funds Monitor A more generous Fed RP this morning should result in a larger late-day dropoff today than on Friday, but we think the effective rate for the session as a whole will still be above target. more »
Treasury Finance
We expect the Treasury to cut the size of the 4-week bill for the second week in a row. The Treasury boosted this offering to $34 billion in mid-July, and then pared it back to $28 billion last week. We think a further reduction to the $20 billion to $25 billion range is likely this week. more »
Daily Press Summary (pdf)
ICAP's i-Recap Report for Monday, Jul 28 The i-Recap report provides relevant market news from Dow Jones Newswires and data from ICAP and Wrightson ICAP in a take-home, easy-to-read format highlighting key developments which could impact the capital markets the ensuing trading day. Download a PDF file of the most recent report now. go »
i-Recap Report Archive go »
